This article attempts to forecast the fair price of Raiden Token, RDN. Raiden Network has successfully completed its ICO on 2nd Nov 2017 using Dutch Auction method. This method of ICO is different in that the less people knows about it, the cheaper is the RDN token ICO price. So, most investors keep quiet and do not promote about Raiden ICO. The result, a very cheap RDN token. Raiden ICO only raised $30 million as compared to Polkadot (during the same duration and using the same Dutch Auction Method) $140 million. Polkadot does use quite a bit of marketing awareness, resulting many investors invested in although the Polkadot Token, Dot, will not be released at least 2 years from now.
In short, Raiden and Polkadot should be comparable in market cap. Both also not main blockchain, both also can be classified as side chain. Only difference is Raiden is more aim towards micropayment, instant and low fee transaction while Polkadot aims more towards interchain asset swaps. But Polkadot raised more than 4x compared to Raiden, due to the fact that Raiden has zero marketing.
If Raiden was to initiate some marketing awareness campaign similar as Polkadot, then Raiden ICO would have been raised almost the same amount of Polkadot. So, it is fair to say that a fair market cap for Raiden is $140 million now. That means the fair price for RDN now should be $0.61x 4=$2.44.
It is also noted that Polkadot is still in conceptual design phase while Raiden is already tested in testnet and its sibling uRaiden is going to be launched in Nov 2017 this year, making Raiden a far more ahead in terms of development, and Polkadot clearly stated that the Dot token will be released minimum 2 years from now. So that means Raiden is 2 years ahead of Polkadot in development, this factor will give Raiden market cap another 2x that of Polkadot, in term of price RDN = $4.88.
And when uRaiden is launched, the price of RDN token will appreciate and it will continue to appreciate when more adoptions for daily use. We can assume a monthly appreciation of 5%-8%, see table below.
In a nutshell, the fair price of Raiden token, RDN is
- Nov 2017 — $2.44
- Dec 2017 — $4.88 (after uRaiden is launched)
- Jan-Nov 2018 — $5.0 to $11.0
There are sources that point to Yunbi, Poloniex or even Vitalik invested a lot of money in Raiden ICO, and Gnosis also invested a lot.
Yunbi was the biggest Chinese exchange , now the oversea site is www.big.one soon will list RDN,
Here is analysis of some of the most prominent wallets who sent ETH into Raiden auction:
https://etherscan.io/address/0x73bbe2483a115894c9d317dd4fe1a201238965d5 — Maybe this is Binance
https://etherscan.io/address/0x198ef1ec325a96cc354c7266a038be8b5c558f67 — this one invested 6k ether and it is probably Vitalik himself as the address had received 600k+ eth from the genesis block
https://etherscan.io/address/0x00ee4bb1c662180b3c76045e630e4d46a79709d3 — There is a huge chance that this is a Poloniex account. Most of the transactions lead to Poloniex corporate accounts some of which do not transact with user accounts but only have internal poloniex transactions.
https://etherscan.io/address/0xa3ae668b6239fa3eb1dc26daabb03f244d0259f0 — Either a huge Chinese whale or Yunbi exchanges itself. Just explore the transactions on this one. Practically all of them are connected to Yunbi corporate accounts.
Here’s another one with fat connections to Yunbi — https://etherscan.io/address/0xb63b22f3ddcc7f469bcb757a5b64a3848f4c4f03
Gnosis invested 3500ETH, tried investing 5000ETH (source from reddit)
Initial funding from Gnosis auction wallet:
Tried to invest 2500ETH two times, but failed:
All TXs here:
From the big investment from Yunbi, Polo, Binance, Gnosis, and even might be Vitalik, it proved that Raiden is a project that has great potential. This again will increase the price of RDN, another 2x should be factored in. So the price listed above should be times 2. So, in Jan-Nov 2018 — $10.0 to $22.0.
Currently, Etherdelta, Binance, Kucoin and CEX.com already listed RDN without the team from RDN contacting them. RDN team did not fill up any form, submit any coin add request and pay any fees! This is amazing! No token has ever listed in Binance without submitting form and paying expensive fees except BTC and ETH. So, RDN is now classify as the same privilege as BTC and ETH. I believe other major exchanges will list RDN soon automatically!
This shows a strong confidence from exchanges that RDN is a solid, good project, and should label as the same level as ETH and BTC. So it would not be surprise if one day RDN also reach the Top 10 crypto in CMC, which currently is held by IOTA with $1.6B market cap. If Raiden can reach the Top 10 position with a $1.6B market cap, that translates to $32 per RDN token!
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